Trump Supposedly [Hearts] an FTA...With Europe

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 4/24/2017 12:11:00 PM
Most nations have an inferiority complex relative to Germany. Why should the US be any different?
Has the maximally unpredictable Donald Trump, who you'd think sees any sort of multilateral FTA as a giveaway to foreigners (who steal jobs through unfair trade practices), changed his mind? Remember, this guy actually kept one of few campaign vows in extricating the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership enlargement negotiations. However, a brace of news reports now suggest that he is willing to negotiate an FTA...with the European Union.

Yes, that very same EU he encourages its members to leave from the UK to France he now wants his country to sign a trade deal with if reports are to be believed. The way the current story goes, Trump originally wanted an FTA with Germany during Chancellor Merkel's recent trip to Washington, DC. However, she rebuffed him by saying that any US-Germany deal must involve the whole EU. (Being an A1-ignoramus, Trump likely does not recognize that trade deals negotiations involving EU members have been assigned to the European Commission.) To this Trump supposedly said he will consider it.

What's more, Trump is said to be putting the EU next in the queue ahead of the UK European Union leavers:
A source close to the White House was quoted as saying that there had been a "realisation" in the Trump administration that a trade deal with the EU - allowing the tariff-free exchange of goods and services - was more important to U.S. interests than a post-Brexit deal with Britain.

"Ten times Trump asked her (Merkel) if he could negotiate a trade deal with Germany," the newspaper quoted a senior German politician as saying.

"Every time she replied, 'You can't do a trade deal with Germany, only the EU'," the politician said. "On the eleventh refusal, Trump finally got the message, 'Oh, we'll do a deal with Europe then.'"
Trump, who has repeatedly criticised the EU, had welcomed Britain's 2016 vote to leave the bloc and said he would work hard to get a quick bilateral trade deal done.
But wait, it gets more interesting. Chancellor Merkel is tacitly going along with this version of events by encouraging it to play out:
German Chancellor Angela Merkel fueled expectations of a future EU-U.S trade deal on Sunday, saying she was "very encouraged" talks were being looked at after her recent trip to Washington.
Merkel, speaking at the opening of the 70th annual Hannover Messe trade fair, said Germany was opposed to protectionism and trade barriers, and would continue to work for trade agreements like the one signed between the European Union and Canada.

"I also feel very encouraged by my visit to the United States that negotiations between the EU and the United States on a free trade agreement ... are also being looked at," she said.
The inconsistency is puzzling but not unexpected since this is Trump after all: Being the unabashed white supremacist that he is, Trump likely thinks Germany and other Europeans come from "superior" racial stock worthy of signing an FTA with instead of Asians. So Germany runs a huge trade surplus with the US, but hey, they can better be trusted since they aren't coloreds! Plus, Germany today with its strong manufacturing base and export machine is exactly the sort of country he wishes the United States was. Voila! As Dick Cheney would say, trade deficits don't matter in this case since enhanced German market access to the US may result in an even larger bilateral German trade surplus given Deutschland's already-elevated competitiveness. 

Another thing an EU-US FTA would be is multilateral instead of bilateral. Trump prefers bilateral deals since they would be easier to strong-arm the other party given the sheer economic might of the US. Plus, it's easier to extricate the US from deals involving just one other party instead of many by putting in many conditions regarding currency manipulation, export surges to the US and so forth.

I suppose that if even Trump doesn't know what Trump will do next that it's quite pointless to speculate what may happen. Still, even by his standards, going all-out on an FTA with the EU would alienate the racist/protectionist/isolationist elements who elected him. (They have many Muslims in Europe besides, right?)

I leave you with this food for thought: whereas the US Trade Representative's website has already declared the Trans-Pacific Partnership dead at the hands of Trump, the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership negotiations are still described in detail there.